Time Series Analysis and Forecasting on Import of Palm Oil in Pakistan

Abstract

Pakistan is an agricultural land but due to some substances, Pakistan does not produce Palm oil in the large quantities; therefore, we import palm oil from other countries. For country planning, forecasting is the primary tool for predicting the import of palm oil to determine the situation and what would be the value of import in the coming year. In this research, we applied various time series models and the best model is identified for the objective to forecast the import of palm oil in Pakistan. It is found that the best model is ARIMA (1, 0, 1). Based on this selected model, forecasting the import of palm oil in Pakistan using the Box-Jenkins modelling technique is helpful for better planning and improvement of this agriculture sector of Pakistan.